@Article{CavalcanteSamp:2022:MoPoDi,
               author = "Cavalcante, Arnobio de Mendon{\c{c}}a Barreto and Sampaio, 
                         Augusto Cesar Praciano",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Modeling the potential distribution of cacti under climate change 
                         scenarios in the largest tropical dry forest region in South 
                         America",
              journal = "Journal of Arid Environments",
                 year = "2022",
               volume = "200",
                pages = "e104725",
                month = "May",
             keywords = "Brazilian semiarid, Cactaceae, Global warming, Caatinga, Species 
                         distribution models, Extinction risk.",
             abstract = "Climate change projections for the Brazilian semiarid region for 
                         the rest of this century include increased temperature, reduced 
                         precipitation and aridification. Consequently, alterations in the 
                         distribution of species are expected in the largest seasonally dry 
                         tropical forest in South America (Caatinga), which covers 75% of 
                         Brazil's semiarid region. This study modeled the potential 
                         distribution of eight cactus species native (target species) to 
                         the Caatinga under future climate scenarios and analyzed the range 
                         shifts of these species during the remainder of this century. Two 
                         online biodiversity databases, nine environmental variables and 
                         the Maxent algorithm were used, considering the time intervals 
                         1961-1990, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, along with two Representative 
                         Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5. The potential 
                         species distribution models predict that: (1) the future climate 
                         conditions are likely to cause contraction or expansion of the 
                         areas with high habitat suitability (>0.75) of the target species; 
                         (2) species with widespread distribution are likely to be 
                         vulnerable to climate change; (3) for some cactus species, climate 
                         change will provide an opportunity for expansion, but for the 
                         majority it will be a threat to survival; and (4) it is premature 
                         to claim that the future vegetation of the Caatinga will be 
                         dominated by cacti.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104725",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2022.104725",
                 issn = "0140-1963",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Cavalcance_2022_modeling.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}